Pengaruh Inflasi dan Penanaman Modal Asing Terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Negara Anggota APEC Dalam Persepektif Ekonomi Islam (Analisis Data Panel Periode 2018 – 2023)

Abstract

The trade balance is one of the key indicators for assessing a country’s economic performance, calculated as the difference between the value of exports and imports over a specific period. Trade balance fluctuations are influenced by various macroeconomic variables, such as inflation rates and the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This study aims to examine the effect of inflation and foreign direct investment on the trade balance of APEC member countries. The method employed is a quantitative approach using panel data. The independent variables in this study are inflation and foreign direct investment, while the dependent variable is the trade balance. The data are sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the World Bank. The population of the study includes all APEC member countries, with eight countries selected as samples, namely the United States, Indonesia, China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore. The data were analyzed using panel regression techniques. The t-test results show that the inflation variable has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on the trade balance. Meanwhile, the FDI variable has a negative and also statistically insignificant effect on the trade balance of APEC member countries.